SMM Tin Morning Brief on November 7, 2025:
Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) rose slightly during the night session before pulling back and fluctuating, closing at 28,310 yuan/mt, up 0.11% from the previous trading day.
Macro: (1) Google is launching its most powerful chip to date, aiming to win business from AI companies by offering custom silicon. The company stated on Thursday that the seventh-generation Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), named "Ironwood," will be released to the public market in the coming weeks, following its initial release for testing and deployment in April this year. This self-developed chip will be used for tasks such as large model training, powering real-time chatbots, and AI agents. TPU development has been ongoing for a decade. Google said Ironwood is more than four times faster than its predecessor, and major customers have already begun queuing for access. Google stated that AI startup Anthropic plans to use up to 1 million new TPUs to run its Claude model. (2) According to Counterpoint Research's Monthly India Smartphone Tracker, India's smartphone market shipments increased 5% YoY in Q3 2025, with shipment value up 18% YoY, reaching a quarterly record high. The market is gradually transitioning to a stable growth phase driven by value growth, a trend primarily fueled by festive stockpiling and sales promotions across online and offline channels, supported by convenient installment payment plans, trade-in policies, and significant discounts. (3) A report titled "Digital and Intelligent Transformation of Developing Chinese Small and Medium-Sized Manufacturing Enterprises," drafted by the Development Research Center of the State Council's Department of Innovation Development Research and recently released in Beijing, indicates that global development has entered a new era of digital and intelligent transformation. China is expected to become one of the world's largest markets for manufacturing digital and intelligent transformation, with the vast number of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises becoming the focus of deepening this transformation under new circumstances. Currently, the pace of digital and intelligent transformation in Chinese manufacturing is accelerating. According to IDC predictions, by 2027, IT investment and communication service budgets for Chinese SMEs are expected to increase 25%, showing strong momentum in transformation investment. The report notes that in recent years, a number of Chinese small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises have promoted deep integration of technological innovation and business model innovation, using digital and intelligent transformation to meet new demands, create new supply, and explore new spaces.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas such as Yunnan, and most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remains cautious, and high prices are noticeably suppressing actual consumption. Limited Boost from Emerging Sectors: Although the increase in AI computing power and the growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors.
Spot Market: Influenced by the slight rise in tin prices, spot market transactions were sluggish yesterday. Most downstream and end-user enterprises had conducted small-scale restocking and necessary just-in-time procurement in the previous trading sessions, resulting in low purchase willingness at present. The majority of traders reported transactions of only around 10 mt.
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